Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 199.973283 239.460591 287.199822 349.960736 431.500582 535.570859 6.813114e+02
2025-08-31 147.605145 191.717267 251.201991 339.757762 472.801817 673.402415 1.016358e+03
2025-09-07 128.266114 177.438345 249.759170 369.201771 573.218435 933.249056 1.689035e+03
2025-09-14 109.776350 158.804300 235.584169 372.684278 631.769282 1153.211248 2.471789e+03
2025-09-21 97.988018 147.273788 228.780497 384.861068 708.949414 1451.120486 3.738743e+03
2025-09-28 86.779894 134.329402 216.385274 382.583891 755.769354 1712.226746 5.266135e+03
2025-10-05 82.565817 132.170984 222.085108 416.705236 897.707968 2323.362095 9.224735e+03
2025-10-12 78.120673 128.736599 224.513815 444.572070 1039.342883 3074.430029 1.627539e+04
2025-10-19 73.518878 124.215471 223.802876 465.109054 1173.390932 3961.419965 2.894904e+04
2025-10-26 68.767185 118.669485 219.884867 476.789859 1289.042669 4942.379895 5.149320e+04
2025-11-02 63.970429 112.361111 213.196665 479.547975 1378.802388 5957.152116 9.103147e+04
2025-11-09 58.844149 104.752899 202.410485 468.465198 1414.760401 6754.839822 1.491370e+05
2025-11-16 53.997340 97.373623 191.505130 455.843395 1446.368067 7669.788201 2.647303e+05
2025-11-23 49.685263 90.642838 181.143634 442.426569 1470.319440 8639.883379 4.998525e+05
2025-11-30 48.889349 91.239123 188.207891 484.178699 1771.799090 13084.791717 3.833098e+06
2025-12-07 46.246055 87.504561 184.057803 489.171416 1905.589619 16521.625270 3.612069e+07
2025-12-14 44.412890 85.349294 183.544480 506.485756 2125.305847 22615.576350 NaN
2025-12-21 41.886778 81.352234 177.640528 503.249125 2227.648041 27760.096342 NaN
2025-12-28 41.538698 82.316690 185.095045 552.003914 2722.269589 48199.755487 NaN
2026-01-04 40.782853 82.229440 189.681577 592.141609 3228.780724 83006.897698 NaN
2026-01-11 39.688777 81.201589 191.441646 621.899174 3713.977155 140565.509753 NaN
2026-01-18 38.288319 79.271183 190.261394 638.889804 4126.658739 228618.929022 NaN
2026-01-25 36.653731 76.595455 186.451433 642.908522 4429.453334 350155.440059 NaN